Stanley Cup Odds

How this works. BleacherBots keeps an Elo power rating for every NHL team, updated after each final with a margin-of-victory adjustment (the same ratings behind the 🎯 BB Prediction on every game card). Each morning we take today's standings, the remaining regular-season schedule, and replay the season 10,000 times: every game is decided by the two ratings plus home ice, winners bank two points, about a quarter of games go past regulation and hand the loser a point. Each simulated season then seeds the real playoff format (top three per division plus two wild cards, divisional bracket, best-of-seven with home ice to the higher seed) and plays it out. The table is just the share of those 10,000 seasons each outcome happened in. It is a model, not a promise — early in the season it leans on last year's ratings, so the sim pulls every rating 30% toward the league average on opening night and fades that pull out over each team's first 30 games; the number you see is the season-adjusted rating the sim actually used. For entertainment only; not betting advice. See how the model's game picks are graded in public →